Trend Report 2025: Find out today what makes tomorrow’s markets tick

Is it possible to predict the trade flows in the fresh produce sector? Yes and no. Yes, because trade relations grow as a result of historical ties, cultural similarities and geographical proximity. No, because economic and geopolitical conditions change in the same way as consumer preferences do, leading to completely new developments in supply and demand, market situations and supply chains. And these often produce surprises, as international analysts reveal in the FRUIT LOGISTICA Trend Report 2025.

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Winners and losers

Bananas, citrus fruits and apples – traditionally the fresh fruit trade’s market leaders – are increasingly facing competition from the premium fruit segment. Thus for example, according to Cindy van Rijswick, an analyst at Rabobank in the Netherlands, a sharp rise in demand for avocados and berries in the US has led to neighbouring Mexico rapidly expanding its areas for cultivating these crops. Together with Peru, it dominates the global avocado market. The Andean state of Peru has in turn doubled its grape and blueberry exports over the past five years, with Europe and the US its main customers. Market experts predict that the global area for blueberry cultivation will continue to expand. In addition to Peru and Mexico, countries such as Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Egypt and South Africa are now also positioning themselves in the market. In future, this could put traditional suppliers such as Morocco and Poland under pressure, says Mike Knowles, publisher of the Trend Report and managing director of Fruitnet Europe.

Durians more popular than apples

In the race for the fastest-growing fruit trade, durians come out on top according to analysts. In 2023 this exotic fruit, which is not really a favourite with European customers due to its peculiar smell, achieved exports of 4.8 billion US dollars. This corresponds to an annual increase of around 25 per cent since 2018. The beneficiary of this trend is Thailand, which thanks to its durian exports – mainly to China – has risen to seventh place in the global ranking of fresh fruit exporters. By contrast, other markets are already saturated. Apple exports, for example, rose only 1 per cent in value over the same period. Market experts attribute this to factors such as higher transport costs in relation to goods value, stagnating consumption and the trend towards domestic production.

MENA region shakes up Europe

In recent years, numerous countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) have been able to capitalise on their comparative advantages as potential suppliers of fresh produce to Europe. Four countries - Turkey, Israel, Morocco and Egypt - now account for 97 per cent of these exports. Over the past five years, the volume has grown by six per cent annually to over 1.75 million tonnes, according to Wayne Prowse, an analyst at Fresh Intelligence. In 2023, Turkey shipped almost 571,000 tonnes of fresh fruit to Europe (EU27 plus the UK), equivalent to 17 per cent of its total fresh fruit exports.

It is not yet possible to assess the impact of the war in the Middle East on Israel's supply of fruit to Europe. Initial analyses of data for 2024 show no decline.

At around 630,000 tonnes, Morocco shipped around 65 per cent of its fresh fruit exports to Europe last year. Overall, the North African country has increased its fruit and vegetable exports by 146 per cent over the past five years, which puts it in sixteenth place in the global market. Morocco has also established itself as the largest supplier of easy peelers, the fourth-largest exporter of oranges and – alongside the US – as the most important non-American supplier of blueberries to Canada.

Egypt has also worked its way up the list of fruit and vegetable exporting countries. With an annual increase of 11.7 per cent, it has even overtaken fast-growing Peru (annual increase of 10.5 per cent). Oranges are still the most important export crop, but premium products such as mangoes and strawberries are increasingly taking over the European market. The crisis in the Middle East, which began almost exactly a year ago, has prompted Egypt to invest even more in quality production in order not to lose out on new and extremely profitable markets in Asia. In recent years the country has also vastly expanded date growing. This will significantly change the market over the next four to five years, says international agribusiness analyst Andriy Yarmak.

Ukraine remains a strong market competitor

Despite Russia’s invasion of the country and the huge obstacles this has created – broken logistics, shortage of harvest labour and drivers, border blockades – Ukraine has recently succeeded in increasing its fruit exports, says Oleksandr Ukrainets from the platform EastFruit. According to Global Trade Tracker, the country was able to increase its export revenues from fresh and frozen fruit by four per cent in 2023 compared with the previous year, and by 12 per cent compared with 2021. Despite Russia blocking seaports until mid-2024, apples from Ukraine have reached more than 35 countries, ranging from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, its main customers, to countries in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Export revenues from Ukrainian blueberries overtook those of apples for the first time in 2023. However, following protests by Polish farmers and subsequent import bans on Ukrainian goods, the majority of berries no longer go to Poland (and from there to other EU countries), but instead are distributed among importers such as the Netherlands, UK, Germany and Spain. The loss of the Belarusian export market has been offset by sales to the Republic of Moldova and Georgia. It is not yet possible to say whether Ukraine can repeat last year's export success. The ongoing war has led to a shortage of labour, and unfavourable weather conditions have reduced yields.

There is also the fascinating question as to whether China will soon replace Russia as Central Asia’s most important buyer of fresh produce. According to analyst Andriy Yarmak, several things point in that direction. You can read his assessment and numerous other exclusive analyses of developments in the fresh produce market in the latest FRUIT LOGISTICA Trend Report, which can be downloaded free of charge at fruitlogistica.com.